Prediction and Control of Pathogenesis in Forest Ecosystems

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UDС

630*165.3

DOI:

10.17238/issn0536-1036.2017.3.61

Abstract

The pathogenesis prognosis in the forest, mainly homogeneous ecosystems, is always prob-abilistic due to its multifactorial nature. A sufficiently high degree of the forecast determi-nancy is possible in more complex heterogeneous plantations. In the complex forest ecosys-tems, the probabilistic forecast of pathogenesis is replaced by a prediction that is close to the deterministic one, which can be the basis for the pathogenesis controlling. The epiphytotics unpredictability is characteristic for homogeneous forest plantations, while smooth predicta-bly pathogenesis fluctuating is typical for heterogeneous plantations. In this case, pathogens often pass to saprotrophic nutrition. This phenomenon is especially characteristic for highly heterogeneous mosaic plantations. The hierarchy of goals of this work is to ensure the effec-tive control of pathogenesis through a sufficiently deterministic forecast and to suggest con-ceptual models for the formation of plantations resistant to pathogenic organisms. Forest plantations as the biological systems are characterized by increased complexity and dyna-mism. The influence of many changing factors on the pathogenesis creates the state of cha-os, widespread in nature. The relevant objective is to transform the chaotic behavior of forest ecosystems into a regulated process. The long-term pathogenesis predictions should become less dependent on external influences and be determined mainly by internal factors of the bio-system. The research methodology is based on the application of a three-factor analysis of the effect of the studied factorial groups on the viability of plantations. The studies were carried out in stands of the various heterogenetic level in the Middle Russian forest steppe during the last 10 years. The environment dominated according to the influence strength. Factors of influence of the pathogen population and the host plants population were modifying. We recommend to change the conventional homogeneous plantations in the Central Russian forest-steppe for heterogeneous ones to make the long-term pathogenesis predictions less dependent on external influences but more on internal factors of biosystems.

Authors

Yu.F. Aref'ev, Doctor of Biological Sciences, Professor M.M. Mamedov, Сandidate of Biological Sciences, Assistant

Affiliation

Voronezh State University of Forestry and Technologies named after G.F. Morozov, ul. Timiryazeva, 8, Voronezh, 394087, Russian Federation; e-mail: arefjev@voronezh.net

Keywords

pathogenesis control, forest ecosystem, forest disease.

For citation

Aref'ev Yu.F., Mamedov M.M. Prediction and Control of Pathogenesis in Forest Ecosystems. Lesnoy zhurnal [Forestry journal], 2017, no. 3, pp. 61–69. 10.17238/issn0536-1036.2017.3.61

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Received on January 30, 2017