Long-Term Forecast Method of Fire Danger in the Priamurye Forests by Taking into Account the Parameters of Atmospheric Motion

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630*551.509.68(571.62)

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Abstract

The first results of the development of long-term prediction of forest fire risk (or lack) in the regions of the Russian Far East on the meteorological conditions are introduced. Fire danger indicators are reconstructed by the balance methods in forests of the Khabarovsk Krai, the Jewish Autonomous and the Amur regions for 30 years. Based on analysis of fire regime and attendant meteorological conditions for each month of the fire season (April-May) from 1960 to 2009 years zoning of investigated area is implemented. Three forest fire zones are identified: a low, heavy, average level of fire danger due to the weather conditions. In order to forecast are formed three databases: weather (temperature, humidity, precipitation), synoptic (parameters of atmospheric circulation) and forest fire (indicators of drought and fire danger due to the weather conditions). Atmospheric circulation is characterized by the following average monthly anomalies in the geographical grid points: surface air temperature and ground-level pressure, the geopotential (gravitation potential) in the middle troposphere and the lower stratosphere of the temperate latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere from the Azores to the Aleutian Islands. For each month in the forest fire zone significant meteorological fields are established for the prediction, which are determined by Hydrometeorogical Centre of Russia for assessment the long-term forecasts of meteorological fields anomalies. It is revealed that the most significant impact on the forest fire situation in this area provide meteorological fields over the areas of the north-western part of the Pacific Ocean and the North Atlantic, where there is the greatest heat emission from the ocean to the atmosphere. The possibility of developing a long-term forest pyrological forecast, based on accounting the influence of processes in the ocean and the atmosphere, is presented.

Authors

G.V. Sokolova, Candidate of Geography Senior, Researcher

Institute of the Water and Ecology Problems Far Eastern Branch of Russian Academy of Sciences Kim Yu Chena, 65, Khabarovsk, 680000, Russia; е-mail: pozhar@ivep.as.khb.ru

Affiliation

Institute of the Water and Ecology Problems Far Eastern Branch of Russian Academy of Sciences

Keywords

forest fires, modeling, prediction, database, synoptic-statistical method.

References

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