To the Question of Price Forecasting for Pulp and Paper Products on the World Market

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UDС

338.12.017

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Abstract

Econometric methods of price dynamics forecasting for timber industry products play an important role in the stable development of the industry and its enterprises. The article presents an econometric analysis of pulp price dynamics that embraces both Russian and world producers. The research of price time series for bleached and unbleached sulphate pulp from Russian and world producers covers a long period of time. The sampling of pulp prices is based on the data obtained from international and Russian statistical organizations. The process of forecasting includes a study of trend patterns and seasonal and cyclic processes that are typical of the timber industry. The trends identified for price time series for pulp are comparable. The starting point of all continuous and increasing trends is the year 2002. The given trends are long-term and continue at present. The difference in pulp price dynamics between Russian and world producers, according to the trend component from 2002 to 2012, can be observed in the rate of increase. The econometric analysis of time series showed the quantity, period, amplitude and other properties of cycles. Cycles lasting for 11 to 14 quarters have similar phase structure and length. The first phase has the lowest prices and lasts for 2 to 3 quarters. The second phase is characterized by the growth of pulp prices during the 5th and 6th quarters. Pulp reaches its maximum price by the 10th of 11th quarter. During the last phase of the cycle, another 5–6 quarters, the pulp price goes down. All price time series for pulp are characterized by significant price differences in the phases of growth and decline. Meanwhile, the phase difference in pulp price from world producers is more significant than that of Russian producers.   Medium-term forecasts and two or three scenarios of long-term forecasts have been developed on the basis of the most adequate models for all analyzed objects. These models allow us to forecast price dynamics in the absence of other unforeseen factors of business activity or emergence of new factors that have not been observed before. This proven scheme of time series analysis can be used to process price data for various types of timber and paper products.

Authors

O.P. Sushko, A.V. Plastinin, N.A. Shilovskaya Northern (Arctic) Federal University named after M.V. Lomonosov

Affiliation

Northern (Arctic) Federal University named after M.V. Lomonosov

Keywords

econometric price analysis, linear trend of pulp prices, cyclic recurrence, pulp price forecasting.