The Potential Impact of Climate Change on the Distribution of Norway Spruce (Picea abies Karst.) in Bosnia and Herzegovina

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630.2

DOI:

10.37482/0536-1036-2022-2-73-83

Abstract

As forests in Bosnia and Herzegovina cover 2,904,600 ha or 56.7 % of its total area, and since the meteorological data analysis for the period 1961–2014 shows that the mean annual temperature maintains a continuous rise, сlose attention should be paid to these fragile ecosystems. It is important to note that one of the most economically valuable species for forestry in Bosnia and Herzegovina, Norway spruce, is particularly endangered due to its very low drought resistance and spread of various diseases. Comparing the last climate sequence (1991–2019) with the previous one (1961–1990) we found that the spruce-inhabited areas showed an average increase in the values of the Forest Aridity Index of 0.929. As for the Ellenberg’s climate quotient, it is noticeable that climate change is not as strong as in the case of the Forest Aridity Index. Based on projections for the mid- (2041–2070) and late-century (2071–2100) under the RCP 4.5, there will be no change that is likely to significantly affect the distribution of spruce. The predicted rates of decline and altitudinal shifts of favorable habitats are negligible. On the contrary, projections under the RCP 8.5 predict a significant reduction of suitable habitats, both for the existing range of Norway spruce and the entire territory of Bosnia and Herzegovina. Particularly, late-century projection under the RCP 8.5 predicts an almost complete reduction of suitable habitats, while small areas of suitable habitats at higher elevations will remain intact.

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For citation: Miletić B., Drašković B., Đorem T., Bojić S., Matović B., Stojanović D.B. The Potential Impact of Climate Change on the Distribution of Norway Spruce (Picea abies Karst.) in Bosnia and Herzegovina. Lesnoy Zhurnal [Russian Forestry Journal], 2022, no. 2, pp. 73–83. DOI: 10.37482/0536-1036-2022-2-73-83

Authors

Boban Miletić¹, PhD Student, Senior Teaching Assistant; ResearcherID: AAW-1785-2021, ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4543-3665
Branislav Drašković¹, PhD in Geography, Assoc. Prof.; ResearcherID: AAW-4998-2021, ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0628-0472
Todor Đorem¹, PhD Student, Teaching Assistant; ResearcherID: AAW-1937-2021, ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6082-6048
Stefan Bojić¹, PhD Student, Senior Teaching Assistant; ResearcherID: AAW-2457-2021, ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8733-3080
Bratislav Matović², Doctor of Biology, Prof.; ResearcherID:AAW-4304-2021, ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4664-6355
Dejan B. Stojanović², PhD in Biology; ResearcherID: AAW-4912-2021, ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2967-2049

Affiliation

¹University of East Sarajevo, Vuka Karadžića 30, Lukavica, East Sarajevo, 71126, Republic of Srpska, Bosnia and Herzegovina; e‑mail: boban.miletic@pof.ues.rs.ba, branislav.draskovic@pof.ues.rs.ba, todor.djorem@pof.ues.rs.ba, stefan.bojic@pof.ues.rs.ba, univerzitet@ues.rs.ba
²University of Novi Sad, Antona Čehova, 13D, Novi Sad, 21102, Republic of Serbia; e-mail: bratislav.matovic@gmail.com, dejan.stojanovic@uns.ac.rs, ilfe@uns.ac.rs

Keywords

Norway spruce, ROC-analysis, climate change, distribution, RCP scenarios

For citation

Miletić B., Drašković B., Đorem T., Bojić S., Matović B., Stojanović D.B. The Potential Impact of Climate Change on the Distribution of Norway Spruce (Picea abies Karst.) in Bosnia and Herzegovina. Lesnoy Zhurnal [Russian Forestry Journal], 2022, no. 2, pp. 73–83. DOI: 10.37482/0536-1036-2022-2-73-83

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