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Assessment of Response to Climate Change in Experiments with the Origins of Picea abies (L.) Karst. × P. obovata (Ledeb.) in the North Russian Plain. P. 22–37

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Elena N. Nakvasina, Nadezhda A. Prozherina

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The article studies the intraspecific response of European spruce (Picea abies (L.) Karst. × P. obovata (Ledeb.)) to climatic changes on the basis of data on the growth of 15 provenances in 31-year-old provenance plot of the North Russian Plain (Arkhangelsk and Vologda regions) simulating warming and cooling. We compared the actual height and diameter at the test site and the calculated height at the places of growth of the source stands, determined by recalculating the actual progeny growth data through the latitudinal growth coefficients proposed by I.V. Volosevich for the North Russian Plain. The difference between the calculated and actual growth rates of the corresponding provenance at the test site represented the response of the provenance to the change in growing conditions. The response was crosschecked with differences in climatic characteristics (sum of effective temperatures above 10 °C) and geographic coordinates of the places of origin and growth of spruce. Spruce has approximately the same response rate if offspring move by an equal amount of gradient (north latitude) to the south or to the north and if the climatic factor (sum of temperatures above 10 °C) changes towards warming or cooling. While the sum of temperatures changes above 10 °C for every 100 °C, the difference in growth in height and diameter will be 0.48 m and 0.42 cm, respectively; for each degree of change in northern latitude, on average, 0.50 m and 0.44 cm in height and diameter, respectively. However, for species from the northern taiga subzone, mainly represented by Siberian spruce (P. obovata) the response of the species will be half as much than for the origin of hybrid spruce (Picea abies (L.) Karst. × P. obovata (Ledeb.)) from the middle taiga subzone. The calculated values of response by height and diameter for European spruce should be considered when regulating seed transfer and used in forecasts for the adaptation of forestry measures to the expected climatic changes.


Elena N. Nakvasina1*, Doctor of Agriculture, Prof.; ResearcherID: A-5165-2013, ORCID:
Nadezhda A. Prozherina2, Candidate of Biology, Senior Research Scientist;
ResearcherID: A-5917-2013, ORCID:


1Northern (Arctic) Federal University named after M.V. Lomonosov, Naberezhnaya Severnoy Dviny, 17, Arkhangelsk, 163002, Russian Federation;*
2N. Laverov Federal Center for Integrated Arctic Research of the Ural Branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Naberezhnaya Severnoy Dviny, 23, Arkhangelsk, 163002, Russian Federation;


spruce, climate change, response to climate change, spruce height, spruce diameter, geographical origins, North Russian Plain


The authors are grateful to the Northern Research Institute of Forestry for
the provided research materials of spruce geographical crops and acknowledge the important role of D.H. Fayzulin and N.V. Ulissova in the inventory of the objects of the Unified Genetic Breeding Complex in 2010 in the Arkhangelsk and Vologda regions, respectively. The authors are sincerely grateful to A.G. Volkov, the head of the NArFU’s GIS Center, for his assistance in preparing the data for the calculations. The research was carried out within the framework of the project “Structure and Variability of Populations of Forest Communities in the Subarctic Territories of the North Russian Plain” No. AAAA-A18-118011690221-0.

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Nakvasina E.N., Prozherina N.A. Assessment of Response to Climate Change in Experiments with the Origins of Picea abies (L.) Karst. × P. obovata (Ledeb.) in the North Russian Plain. Lesnoy Zhurnal = Russian Forestry Journal, 2023, no. 1, pp. 22–37. (In Russ.).


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